The fact
Ongoing negotiations between armed groups reshape the balance of forces in the Sahel.
This instability could accelerate the withdrawal of the regime's remaining international partners.
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Observed impact
Fragilisation du contrôle territorial de la junte militaire
Risque d'effondrement du gouvernement de transition
Potentiel retrait des soutiens internationaux (France, Mauritanie, Burkina Faso)